Economics

为何石油巨头应该自杀

Dec 23, 2015 Anatole Kaletsky

伦敦—如今，石油价格已经安稳地位于每桶30—50美元的长期区间（如一年前的本文所述），世界各地的能源用户每年可以获得2万亿美元以上的收入提振。净结果几乎肯定可以加速全球增长，因为如此巨大的收入再分配的受益者大多是中低收入家庭，他们会把所有的收益都花掉。

当然，也有大输家——主要是石油生产国政府，它们的储备下滑，只要有可能，它们就从金融市场上借钱而不是削减公共支出。毕竟，这才是政客偏爱的方针，特别是当他们正在打仗、抗拒地缘政治压力或面对群众暴乱时。

但并非所有的生产者的损失都一样。有一个群体确实遭到了重创：西方石油公司，今年它们宣布减少价值大约2,000亿美元的投资。这导致了全球股市低迷；但是，矛盾的是，石油公司股东可能最后还能从新的廉价石油时代获益。

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A New Ceiling for Oil Prices
Bill & Vicki T/Flickr

Economics 29

A New Ceiling for Oil Prices

Anatole Kaletsky explains why today's $50 price is likely to be a ceiling, not a floor.
Cheap Oil and Global Growth
Mint Images/ZumaPress

Economics 12

Cheap Oil and Global Growth

Anatole Kaletsky refutes the claim that the latest fall in oil prices is a harbinger of recession.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 26 Comments on this article

Pavlos Papageorgiou Feb 7, 2016

The short-term situation is probably a conflict between Russia and Saudi Arabia over strategic power in the Middle East. Long run, as you say, the stranded asset problem will dominate. Low-cost producers have only a few years to extract and sell maybe a tenth of their reserves before technological and environmental factors limit demand to the point where oil is just another mining commodity. Current supply and demand are almost irrelevant in the face of this future limit.
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Paul Pizzala Jan 18, 2016

If you think about it oil is a process of energy conservation over millions of years (possibly discrete jumps in evoiution but not exponential) and as far as we know we can't concentrate oil into a more energy dense and efficient product but on the other hand silicon has the potential to exponentially increase its efficiency through human invention - my bet is on human invention getting there before the next geo-physical leap in energy innovation.
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Kevin Furr Jan 3, 2016

"as one BP director replied when I asked why his company continued to risk deep-water drilling, instead of investing in alternative energy"

BP's objection was 100% valid and it shows poor judgment to be dismissive of it. An oil driller DOESN'T have the slightest expertise in making better solar panels or batteries or ... whatever. You're talking about an abruptly different set of technologies and an abruptly different culture to achieve progress. You can say they're in the vague "energy business" all you want, it changes nothing. Expecting BP or Exxon to create the next alternate energy is like expecting US Steel to have created Google or Facebook. No different. Leaving aside the billions that governments are doing to waste with politically-driven decisions here, if oil cos tried to dump 10s of billions into tech alt energy tech research, they literally would not be able to find things to invest in. You can't just create an infinite number of labs, PhD's and resources out of thin air on demand to do anything productive. You expect BP to buy out Tesla? If an oil company tried such a thing the culture clash would simply ruin the investment and there'd be nothing to come of it. Eventually when the economics makes sense we'll HAVE our alt energy ... and it'll be from other companies and not the giant oil suppliers. Future energy won't come from BP any more than Windows and iPhones came from Univac.
- Pavlos Papageorgiou Feb 7, 2016
  
  It depends on the company. Film companies Fuji, Kodak, and Agfa successfully transitioned to digital imaging for medicine (Kodak rebranded as Carestream). Fujifilm also succeeded with a line of cameras that captured some qualities of their popular films, while Kodak for example failed to create Instagram.
  
  If oil companies think their product is a mineral fuel, sure enough they have no chance. Actually oil companies are banks and retail franchises, they subcontract the actual handling of petrochemicals. Those "oil" companies that focus on customer needs like powering industry or transportation will successfully switch to new technologies and still be here in 50 years.
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- Jason Houdek Jan 4, 2016
  
  Those who think oil companies couldn't invest their massive exploration budgets in clean energy development because it is isn't their core expertise would do well to remember that the Shell Oil Company started life as an antique dealer.
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Stock Soup Jan 3, 2016

You might want to republish this fine article in 15 years, you are way to early, Mr K.

Global demand is at an all time high, and this with global growth anemic. http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx
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Douglas Leyendecker Jan 3, 2016

Kodak didn't invent the digital camera. Columbia Records did not invent the song download. Digital Equipment did not invent the personal computer. And AT&T didn't invent the cell phone.

You can't teach an old dog new tricks. You can't change a tiger's stripes. Large legacy infrastructures, whether public or private, thrive on incremental change because they are so well established in their market. Step change on the other hand can't come from legacy giants because it threatens their existence.

Although an interesting theoretical exercise it is implausible to expect big oil companies to sell their assets and join the race to alternative energy technological breakthroughs. The odds are such a breakthrough, like so many, will not come from the legacy energy industry. And not to worry, we have so much oil in the world that airplane and trucking companies will have ample fuel for a very long time...and much cheaper fuel if economic alternatives do develop.

In the meantime we have rushed so fast to force change away from hydrocarbons that we are denying...that's right, a new set of deniers...we are denying developing nation citizens of their economic potential. And to get all those developing nations to sign that climate change accord WITH NO TEETH we have resorted to $100B a year bribes. "Hey you guys, we'll give you $100B a year if you sign this." Foreign Corrupt Practices Act is of course only for the private sector.

Do as I say, don't do as I do. Seems pretty hypocritical.
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Oserver Observer Jan 3, 2016

Anyone care to give me a date when the airline industry will not be reliant on petrochemicals for the fuel to power the jets? Thought not! Petrochemicals, for transport, are going to be required for many years yet.
- thomas braum Jan 3, 2016
  
  I agree that air and sea transportation will take quite a while to move away from oil unless there are some significant breakthroughs. However, change does not happen all at once and there is no way to know when or exactly how that change will occur. Fossil fuels are not going away quickly, but there will be a major shift in how the world produces energy.
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Christopher T. Mahoney Jan 1, 2016

A big part of the problem is that GAAP allows the oil companies to capitalize their exploration activities. If capex were treated as opex, they would all be losing money.
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Stan Paul Dec 30, 2015

I think you are exaggerating how easily OPEC can deploy these reserves.
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Jose Mellado Dec 29, 2015

we venezuelans are having hard time now!
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Tore Folk Dec 28, 2015

What everyone seem to fail mentioning is that the low oil prices is caused by Isis dumping oil on the market at that the prices will probably change as soon as this connection is severed. The other thing I would like to mention is that, the way it is now, stopping oil use all together will make us rely on technology that still is not at the advance we need. The fact that certain extremely popular electric cars has made a bigger impact on the environment before leaving the factory floor than a modern petrol car after 20 years of use. Lastly I would like to mention that in the case of a global catastrophe like super volcanoes or meteors hitting our planet, fossil fuels will be the only hope of keeping us alive through a "nuclear winter ". That this should be pumped up and saved in deposits for the future. This means that both the supporters and opponents has to let go of their dogmatic thinking and start thinking in a long term exceeding 500 years into the future.
- Jose Mellado Dec 29, 2015
  
  How much oil Is ISIS selling?
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- John Ranta Dec 29, 2015
  
  @Tore, two questions for you. One is why you think the minuscule amount of oil ISIS sells per day (maybe 50,000 bbls) can have any impact on a world market that consumes 85,000,000 bbls/day? ISIS oil black marketeering is a drop in the bucket, and has no impact on world prices for oil. Two is your claim that production of an electric car has the same environmental impact as 20 years of internal combustion vehicle production and use. That claim fails a basic logic test. Producing an electric vehicle and an internal combustion vehicle require more or less the same processes and amounts of materials. And running an electric vehicle has a lower annual environmental impact than does an internal combustion engine vehicle. Your numbers don't add up.
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peter fairley Dec 28, 2015

A contrary view could easily be made with an equally inspired vision about increasing DEMAND for oil. Affordable battery powered cars are not a sure thing in the next 5 years even for wealthy nations. Vehicles like this are even less affordable in developing nations. Affordable clean technology that is NOW available, such as natural gas powered cars are slow to be adopted even in USA. Asia has been choking on bad air for many years without switching to natural gas vehicles.
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Talal Serhan Dec 28, 2015

What realy threatens oil is advancement in solar technology, but i don not believe it will end like coal. In comparison, the sun as a source of energy is weak. It can neither drive ships nor lift airoplanes. World population is very likely to continue rising.
Oil will continue as a major source of energy, and be very profitable, especially, for OPEC countrues.
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Doug Robbins Dec 28, 2015

BP's reserves are not worth $360 billion.
The latest BP annual report is found here: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/investors/bp-annual-report-and-form-20f-2014.pdf
The most important part of an oil company annual report is the Standardized Measures of Discounted Cash Flows relating to Proved Reserves, found on page 192 of the BP report. This calculation, performed by company engineers, represents the value of all of the proved reserves, after allowing for development costs (not all of the proved reserves are developed), operating expense, and transportation to market. The timing of investments and production streams is also applied in the calculation. According to an SEC rule-change in 2008, the price assumed for the product is the average first-of-month price for each month in 2014, which is about $97 per barrel.
The discounted cash-flow analysis shows the value of BPs proved reserves was $127 billion, at $97/bbl. We can expect that value to drop sharply when the 2015 report is issued in the spring, using the 2015 price of $54.43/bbl.
Most of the market value in BP is currently in the refining and marketing business, with some speculative value for a possible rise in prices.
Total company reserves are given on page 179. Proved DEVELOPED reserves are 9.7 billion barrels equivalent, and proved UNDEVELOPED reserves are 7.8 billion barrels equivalent. Separate figures for proved oil and gas, developed and undeveloped, are given on pages 177 and 178.
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Craig Campbell Dec 28, 2015

Albeit this is economic point. I think the author is forgetting what happens to the burden of relying on foreign oil during times of crisis. With ISIS, Russia, Turkey and the middle east playing with fire I for one am no keen on letting whatever we have left up for grabs. As long as their is turmoil in the world and until there's a clear path to an alternative I say lets let the oil companies keep spending money...
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Steve Hurst Dec 27, 2015

Cowboys dont make good Indians and Indians dont make good Cowboys

'Yet, as one BP director replied when I asked why his company continued to risk deep-water drilling, instead of investing in alternative energy: “We are a drilling business, and that is our expertise. Why should we spend our time and money competing in new technology with General Electric or Toshiba?”..'

Can I remind you that BPs technology to contain the Deep Water spill at one point involved trying to bung the hole with old rubber tyres. Oil companies do not have many transferable skills
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Stan Kormak Dec 25, 2015

It is not surprising that oil companies do not venture to other businesses. They tried it during the 70's crises, with Exxon getting into office products. This did not pan out and Mr. Kaletsky ought to remember this episode. He is correct about the futility of spending the enormous amounts of money in searching for new oil, but rather than give his own prescription on what oil companies should do, he would have served his readers better by noting that what an industry such as oil ( in a world that uses oil at more than double or triple the rate that new oil is found) does is to buy reserves my merging, with consolidation of the industry. This is what is likely to happen, because this is how business works.
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jagjeet sinha Dec 24, 2015

Mark Carney and Sheikh Yamani both brilliance exemplified.
The ultimate solution to The Planet's energy needs perhaps The Sun.
That shines most brilliantly in Saudi Arabia as well as Africa.
Africa indeed can become The Solar Superpower.
The Stone Age did not end because the cavemen ran out of stone.
The Solar System will not end because The Sun runs out.
Human efforts in harnessing the ultimate source is indeed Big Oil 's final weapon.
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Michael Public Dec 23, 2015

The real issue is their borrowing are secured against ground reserves. Heading for another toxic debt and too big to fail situation.
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Avraam Dectis Dec 23, 2015

.
If there were a battery breakthrough tomorrow that gave cars a 500 mile range, recharged in 10 minutes and did it all economically, what would oil stocks be worth?

Oil stocks would be worth nothing because nobody would want an internal combustion vehicle.

People do not yet realize how quickly the market could change.
It is just a matter of time until those breakthroughs happen.

.
- portocala mechanica Dec 24, 2015
  
  Sorry, from what pocket will you get the energy to charge the wonder battery?
  The mine coals did not close because there was no more coal but because it become available a more efficient energy source, (not more clean!!!)
  Did you ever try to lift off an one hundred passengers plane on solar panels?
  I think that only plants in this word develops with solar energy, the animals use to eat each others.
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- Michael Public Dec 23, 2015
  
  No. Most people don't drive 500 miles a day. Most people don't need a car to charge in 10 minutes. What most people need is electric cars to cost close to the price of regular cars.
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为何石油巨头应该自杀

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