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如何理解目前极高的股价

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纽黑文/纽约/伦敦—人们一直感到困惑的是，全球股市在2019冠状病毒病大流行面前还没有崩溃，特别是在美国，最近其新增病例不断创下新高。但也许这并不是一个谜题。我们称之为超额收益指数(ECY)的一项指标，让人们对全球股市的长期前景有了更好的认识。

毋庸置疑，资产市场在很大程度上受到心理和叙事的驱动。正如诺贝尔奖得主丹尼尔·卡尼曼(Daniel Kahneman)所写的，“熟悉会滋生好感”，在第一季度2019冠状病毒病疫情爆发后，今年全球股市出现了几个熟悉的故事。例如，V型复苏和FOMO(害怕错过)，这两种因素都可能推动股市创出新高。还有一种是“居家办公”的说法，这种说法尤其令科技和通讯类股票受益。

但是，这些说法是我们所有人没有考虑把钱从股票中撤出、投入债券等更安全的替代品、甚至把钱藏在家里床垫底下的唯一原因吗?

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