Emmanuel macron Mikhail Metzel/TASS/Getty Images

Vive l’Euro?

LONDRES – La victoire d'Emmanuel Macron à l'élection présidentielle française du 7 mai a déclenché une vague d'optimisme quant à l'avenir de l'Union européenne et de la zone euro en particulier. Ceci est en partie parce que Macron a mené une campagne qui défendait l’UE sans ambiguïté, et a été récompensé pour cela. Mais c’est aussi parce que la menace qu’un gouvernement populiste puisse arriver à la tête d’un des États fondateurs de l'Union européenne appartient, pour le moment au moins, au passé.

Malgré tout, l'enthousiasme renouvelé en faveur de l'UE ne doit pas être confondu avec une confiance inébranlable. Comme Macron lui-même le comprend certainement, la viabilité à long terme de l'UE exige que le « projet européen » séduise plus ses citoyens que son leadership. Par conséquent, les dirigeants européens doivent saisir – et saisiront probablement – cette occasion pour relancer les efforts en vue de relever les défis de la sécurité, de la migration et de la croissance.

Il y a, cependant, un gros problème dont personne n’ose parler : la nécessité d'une réforme de la gouvernance de la zone euro. À l'heure actuelle, les négociations en vue de réformes de la zone euro ne sont pas une priorité pour les dirigeants en France, en Allemagne ou ailleurs. Cela reflète en partie une diminution du risque d'instabilité financière; mais une « fatigue des réformes » parmi les membres est aussi un facteur. Les efforts de renforcement des institutions de l'UE poursuivis au cours des dernières années sont au point mort. Pour continuer à progresser, il faudra accepter un certain degré de partage des risques entre tous les pays du bloc, et cela ne sera rendu possible que par davantage de campagnes politiques de soutien et potentiellement des référendums nationaux. Pour l’instant, l’opportunisme politique favorise le statu quo.

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