Economics

La macroéconomie face à l'incertitude

Nov 16, 2021 Robert Skidelsky

LONDRES – Le problème du relâchement monétaire, le programme d'achat d'obligations de la Fed (la Réserve fédérale américaine), "c'est qu'en pratique il marche bien, mais pas en théorie". Telle fut en 2014 la petite phrase de Ben Bernanke, le président de la Fed à cette époque. On pourrait en dire autant de la politique macroéconomique en général, car il n'y a rien de très solide derrière. De manière habituelle, les Etats "stimulent" l'économie pour "combattre" le chômage, alors que théoriquement il n'y a pas de chômage à combattre.

Sophistications mathématiques mises à part, la science économique est revenue là où elle en était il y a 100 ans : l'étude de la répartition des ressources à laquelle s'ajoute la théorie monétaire quantitative. La macroéconomie (la théorie de la production dans son ensemble, créée par Keynes) a pratiquement disparu.

Par exemple, quelle est la cause du chômage ? Selon la plupart des manuels d'économie, c'est la rigidité des salaires face à une tendance à la baisse. Un coiffeur qui demande un salaire horaire de 14 dollars, mais auquel on ne propose que 13 dollars risque de refuser. Ce choix traduit une préférence pour les loisirs ou la décision de ne pas être coiffeur. Il peut en être de même pour tous les autres travailleurs. De ce point de vue, ce que l'on appelle chômage est la décision de ne pas travailler.

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Robert Skidelsky

Writing for PS since 2003
208 Commentaries

Robert Skidelsky, a member of the British House of Lords and Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University, was a non-executive director of the private Russian oil company PJSC Russneft from 2016 to 2021. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, became the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Treasury affairs in the House of Lords, and was eventually forced out of the Conservative Party for his opposition to NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.

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Didier Vanoverberghe Nov 21, 2021

Macroeconomics is hurted, not totally killed, uncertainty is an important point not the only one.
Macro was hurted by the Cambridge controversy with the Sraffa mistake, Capital has a definition within imperfect maket with uncertainty. The most important is the Wealth definition. Friedman made a very important mistake with the pih, he defined Wealth as the discounting sum of the revenues, instead of revenues minus reinvestments, this leads to a constant income. By this way he forgot the investment effect that is growth. The same is with the Ricardo Barro equivalence, Barro forgot the investment in his demonstration.
Two other examples to demonstrate classical Macro is inefficient today:
All governments use gdp that is an expenditure approach (expenditures: consumption+ investment+...). Will you manage your invested money by the expenditure side or use the gain side ? Governments use only the expenditure side (investment as a cost), where gains are profits wages and taxes. The wealth created per period approach is the right solution for macroeconomics.
Another question: who is the richer a person with $300 000 of Capital and $40 000 income per year or $400 000 of Capital and $30 000 income per year ? Only Weath can give the answer.
Keynes made another mistake with multiplier, this underestimate the investment effect. Which company will manage investment within a one year period ? Use the AK model the investment will bring (1+A) *inv, about 1.2 *investment the imf find, where the investment effect is during 20 years.

If you want a solution for the rebirth of macro :
https://www.logineco.com/category/Wealth/
And ssrn Didier Vanoverberghe
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Joe Ryan Nov 21, 2021

Prof. Skidelsky (like Keynes and the advocates of the Job Guarantee Program) regards macroeconomics as being about combating unemployment because he regards employment as the way of meeting the worker's basic necessities.

Why?

We don't ask rentiers to be employed in order to consume. Or retirees. Or children.

The implicit reasons for linking an individual's consumption to the same person's employment seem to be two. One, some labor is necessary to produce what we consume. Two, capitalists need a lever to get people to make money for them.

From the point of view of access to basic necessities, we may reject both these considerations. As regards the first reason, the output needed for middle-class consumption (plus making good the depreciation of capital goods) can be reached without employing the whole traditional work force. As regards the second, the people who are capitalists are wealthy and can consume on the basis of their wealth (as well as by the same means as workers do) without employing anyone.

Obviously, we already provide a lot of basic necessities in ways that are not linked to employment. So, sharing clearly works, not just via social security but, as noted above, for rentiers and children. It hasn't killed the economy.

Instead of forced employment, we should do more of that sharing — expanding social security and the like.

Employment should be seen less as a distributional tool and more as being not only socially necessary but also as part of a person's life, just as consumption is. Working conditions matter. The opportunity to be productive matters. Dignity matters.

Just as we have social security etc. for consumption, we also try to improve the work place in the above respects. But that effort seems half-hearted. Further de-linking consumption from employment will allow us to do a better job of improving the work place.

Finally, wasteful and destructive production could be cut back by further de-linking consumption from employment.

At present, the imperative for "growth" stems from two sources. One, C+I+G: investment is needed for "full" employment. Two, investment increases capitalists' wealth. We can jettison both these motives and pursue growth instead as merely a statistical artifact of the process of innovation and improvement of living standards.
- Andrés Galia Nov 21, 2021
  
  I am not sure that ANY consumption should be part of a person's life. Only consumption to protect that life should be considered. I do not need to consume water bottled in plastic containers and imported 10,000 miles from where I live to sustain my life. I do not need to have a cell phone and change it every year to support my life. But the eEconomy does, and that is the problem.
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Henry Rech Nov 17, 2021

"Macroeconomics is the child of uncertainty."

Yes it is. But it is also the child of various fallacies of composition.

The phenomenon at the base of the main FoC is that one person's spending is another's income. This immediately invalidates supply demand analysis as supply and demand curves become interdependent.

And mainstream economics places great store on Say's Law, which is another way of expressing the above dictum about spending and income, in explaining why full employment equilibrium is always in place but then, in contradiction, also relies on supply demand analysis.

However, while Keynes decried Say's Law as a rationale for full employment, he effectively also used it (and the above described FoC) to undermine the classical argument that a fall in real wages across the economy will increase employment.
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Robert Wolff Nov 16, 2021

I would argue that the different outcomes between theory and practice are actually the different resultant impacts of the application of two very different philosophies: Reason (Rationalism) and Practicality (Pragmatism).

The philosophy of Rationalism, established by the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 at the end of the Thirty Years War between Catholics and Protestants in Europe, established a framework for collaboration versus competition to end the war. War is NEVER Rational (by the philosophical definition of Rationalism as favoring collaboration over competition) but war is often Practical (determined by the Situation and how to reverse it through implementing a combative response to correct a subjective crisis by one of the competitors .)

So what is practical in a competitive situation is often irrational over the long term and what is rational over the long term often goes against what is practical to resolve the subjectively assessed situational crisis in the immediate moment.

Both Rationalism and Pragmatism are also applied in Foreign Relations concurrently, as means to preserve both competition in the short run and collaboration in the long run.
- Constance Morley Nov 21, 2021
  
  Good points. Let us also recall that 'Westphalian philosophy of rationalism' is based on 19th century notions of "rational man" well-known and largely banned from macroeconomics with all the best of intentions. However, the worst of "rational man" with unhindered greed and absolutist definitions of freedom have persisted along with white supremacy in hard-right conservatism that threatens political and economic stability especially in the context of global climate crisis. I suggest that macroeconomics must redefine "rationalism" along with conceptions of "the self" to finally move away from the mounting dangers of racist greed. Such an effort can open many new discussions.
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