Život v nepolárním světě

NEW YORK – Dnešnímu světu nedominuje jedna, dvě, ba ani několik velmocí, ale spíše jej ovlivňují desítky státních i nestátních aktérů uplatňujících rozličné pravomoci. Dvacáté století, ovládané nejprve hrstkou států, pak během studené války dvojicí států a ve finále na jejím konci americkou převahou, vystřídalo století jedenadvacáté, jemuž nevévodí nikdo. Nazvěme jej nepolárním.

Tento stav zapříčinily tři faktory. Zaprvé, některé státy získaly moc ve spojitosti s nárůstem svého ekonomického vlivu. Zadruhé, roli všech států oslabila globalizace, neboť ostatním entitám umožnila akumulovat významnou moc. A zatřetí, americká zahraniční politika urychlila relativní úpadek Spojených států oproti ostatním. Výsledkem je svět, v němž se moc nekoncentruje, nýbrž rostoucí měrou rozprostírá.

Vznik nepolárního světa se může projevit jako většinou negativní, jelikož ztěžuje utváření kolektivních reakcí na naléhavé regionální a globální výzvy. Větší počet těch, kdo rozhodují, komplikuje rozhodování. Nepolarita rovněž zvyšuje počet i potenciální závažnost hrozeb, ať už jde o nevyzpytatelné státy, teroristické skupiny či milice.

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