生活在无极化的世界中

纽约——今天的世界与其说是被一个、两个甚至多个大国所控制,还不如说受到数十个行使不同权力的国家和非国家参与者的共同影响更为确切。过去的20世纪世界事务起初由若干个国家共同掌管,而后在冷战期间,由两个大国全方位控制,接着又在冷战结束后最终受制于美国的强大优势,这样一个20世纪现在终于让位给了一个没有任何人处于控制地位的21世纪。这就叫做无极化。

有三种因素造就了目前这样的局势。首先,有些国家在经济影响力日益扩大的同时已经积累了强大的实力。其次,全球化削弱了所有国家的力量,因为它允许其他实体积聚实质性的权力。还有第三点,美国的外交政策加快了美国相对于其他国家的衰落。结果就是这个世界的权力越来越分散,而不是越来越集中。

无极化世界出现的影响可能被证实主要是负面的,因为它的出现使得对急迫的地区和全球性挑战做出集体回应变得更加困难。决策者数量的增多导致决策的难度加大。无极化还增加了威胁的数量和潜在的破坏性,无论这些威胁来自流氓国家,民兵还是恐怖组织。

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