让发展中国家来统治

  剑桥-在当前的危机中,也有对发展中国家有利的一面,因为它们会以在支配经济全球化的制度机构中拥有更大影响力的姿态出现。一旦金融危机尘埃落定,中国、印度、巴西、韩国以及其他一些“新兴”国家将有能力对多边经济机构管理的方式产生更大的影响,并且在推进反映它们利益的改革中处于更为有利的地位。

对以上的论断有两个相互关联的理由。首先,金融危机已经削弱了美国和欧洲的实力。美国和欧洲将会不愿意或没有能力提供在第二次世界大战后几十年里维持多边主义的那种领导。发展中国家将不得不进来填补空缺。

第二,发展中国家在全球经济中的相对影响力和重要性会进一步增强。许多西方重要的金融机构——那些没有被国有化的金融机构——以及一些重要的工业企业,会完全受到来自中国或海湾国家的资本的支配。在贸易方面,当前的全球贸易谈判回合已经显示,如果富裕国家希望发展中国家合作,它们就需要让发展中国家制定游戏规则。

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