朝鲜准备开门迎客了吗?

发自首尔——朝鲜的整个体制正在崩溃。该国目前面临着严重的能源紧缺,经济自1990年以来一直陷入萧条,人均收入估计只有1800美元,仅仅相当于韩国的5%。与此同时,食品短缺导致2400万朝鲜人只能忍饥挨饿,平均每1000名新生儿中就有超过25名夭折,相比之下韩国只有4名。为了找条活路,这个世界上最为集中也最为封闭的经济体只能对外开放。

一个更具活力也更加繁荣的朝鲜——再加上朝鲜半岛的和平与稳定——不但有利于朝鲜自身,也有益于周边国家以及更广泛的国际社会。毕竟朝鲜的突然崩溃或者半岛内部的军事冲突将破坏区域安全,而周边国家也会遭到大量难民涌入,以及数以百亿计的重建成本。

这应当促使国际组织和各邻国向朝鲜提供所需的食品援助,技术支持和直接投资来使其摆脱当前的困境并实现向市场经济的转型。但这类合作的实现依然存在着极大障碍——不仅仅是朝鲜晦涩神秘且无法预测的政治走向,最近金正恩处决其姑父张成泽这样的事件就是一例。

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