Уроки Ливана

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. Наблюдая на прошлой неделе за падением правительства Ливана, трудно не задуматься о том, как установить стабильность в Ираке. У двух стран так много общего. В обеих странах неустойчивые демократии, в которых любой политический вопрос может спровоцировать не только интенсивные дебаты, но и угрозу насилия.

Обе страны имеют относительную свободу слова, по крайней мере по отношению к своим арабским соседям, а также множество политических партий, которые всегда готовы ее использовать. Каждая из них подвержена большему риску манипулирования со стороны, чем другие страны региона.

Ирак и Ливан также имеют самое большое этническое и конфессиональное разнообразие среди арабских стран мира. Хотя в Ливане не проводились надежные переписи населения на протяжении десятилетий, его население, предположительно, состоит из 30% мусульман-суннитов, 30% мусульман-шиитов, и 30% христиан; друзы и другие составляют оставшееся количество. В Ираке около 60% составляют шииты, 20% арабы-сунниты и 20% курды, которые в основном являются суннитами. В обеих странах представители каждой из этих групп требуют значительного политического влияния.

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