Vom Libanon lernen

NEW YORK – Nach dem Zusammenbruch der libanesischen Regierung letzte Woche kommen einem sofort die Bemühungen zum Aufbau eines stabilen Irak in den Sinn. Die beiden Länder haben sehr viel gemeinsam. Bei beiden handelt es sich um instabile Demokratien, wo jede politische Frage nicht nur eine heftige Debatte, sondern auch Gewaltandrohungen auslösen kann.

Zumindest im Vergleich zu ihren arabischen Nachbarländern herrscht in beiden Ländern relative Meinungsfreiheit und sowohl im Irak als auch im Libanon gibt es eine Vielzahl von politischen Parteien, die stets bereit sind, diese auch zu nutzen. Beide Länder sind mit einem größeren Manipulationsrisiko von außen konfrontiert als andere Länder in der Region.

Außerdem sind der Irak und der Libanon die ethnisch und religiös vielfältigsten Länder der arabischen Welt. Obwohl im Libanon seit Jahrzehnten keine verlässliche Volkszählung mehr durchgeführt wurde, schätzt man, dass sich die Bevölkerung aus 30 Prozent Sunniten, 30 Prozent Schiiten und 30 Prozent Christen zusammensetzt, wobei den verbleibenden Rest Drusen und andere Bevölkerungsgruppen bilden. Im Irak leben etwa 60 Prozent Schiiten, 20 Prozent sunnitische Araber und 20 Prozent Kurden, von denen die meisten sunnitischen Glaubens sind. In beiden Ländern beanspruchen die Vertreter aller dieser Gruppen substanziellen politischen Einfluss.

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