Le Défi Chinois

NEW YORK – Jusqu’à maintenant, les débats sur la question de savoir si la Chine devrait réévaluer sa monnaie, le renminbi, se sont presque exclusivement concentrés sur l’impact de son taux de change sur la balance commerciale de la Chine. Mais quel serait l’impact d’une hausse du renminbi sur les investissements étrangers directs intérieurs comme extérieurs (IED) de la Chine ?

L’étude de la politique monétaire de la Chine montre que les effets de n’importe quel changement sur la balance commerciale ne sont pas plus importants que les potentielles conséquences sur l’IED intérieur, qui joue un rôle si essentiel dans le développement économique chinois et sur l’IED extérieur de la Chine, auquel le monde s’intéresse de plus en plus.

La Chine est le plus gros bénéficiaire d’IED du monde en développement depuis la moitié des années 90. Une hausse du renminbi impliquerait que cela coûterait plus cher aux entreprises étrangères de s’installer (ou de se développer) en Chine – le plus dynamique des marchés mondiaux – et rendrait les exportations des affiliés étrangers, qui représentent 54% des exportations totales, moins compétitives à l’international. D’un autre côté, l’augmentation du coût serait en partie compensée par des apports importés moins coûteux, et les affiliés étrangers pourraient s’attendre à rapatrier des profits plus élevés des ventes en Chine exprimées dans leurs propres monnaies.

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