A pedestrian walks in front of a huge screen flashing a news report relating to US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong agreeing to meet for talks  TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP/Getty Images

“金特会”能成功吗?

堪培拉—去年,朝鲜的金正恩和美国总统特朗普像稚童那样互相攻讦——“火箭人正在执行自杀任务”特朗普说金正恩;“丧心病狂的美国老糊涂”金正恩回击——差点让东亚遭到核夷平。如今,情况发生了令人咋舌的戏剧性变化,两人要在5月会面。据说金正恩准备去核,渴望直接和特朗普对话。而特朗普答应了他。

但如果你对局势的转变充满乐观的话,请你务必保持谨慎的现实主义。朝鲜是来自地狱的核问题。朝鲜和美国都无法控制叙事(narrative),成功还是失败,都只能从相对角度判断;而特朗普进入谈判时肯定没有退出策略。自1953年朝鲜战争结束六十年来——停战但没有签订和平协定——日益危险的僵局越来越难以打破。尽管双方都不可能发动预谋的核打击,但因为沟通不畅、错觉或误判而导致战争的风险是实实在在的。

到目前为止,所有重要消息都来自首尔,而不是平壤或华盛顿。韩国总统、朝鲜难民之子文在寅凭借针对朝鲜的双轨方针——制裁加外交而当选。因此,金正恩的妹妹金与正出席了平昌冬奥会,两国还组成一支队伍参赛。奥运会后,文在寅的国家安保室长郑义溶和国家情报院院长徐薰访问了平壤和华盛顿,在白宫草坪上与韩国驻美大使赵润济(但没有美国官员出席)一同宣布了金特会的消息

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