人造停滞

纽约—2008年,全球金融危机爆发不久,我警告说除非采取正确的政策,否则将会出现日本式问题——多年的经济增长缓慢和收入近乎停滞。尽管大西洋两岸的领导人纷纷表示已经吸取了日本的教训,但他们仍在积极地重复相同的错误。如今,甚至前美国高级官员、经济学家萨默斯(Larry Summers)也在警告长期停滞。

我在五年前所提出的的基本要点是,从根本上说,美国经济在危机之前便已出现问题:它只是一个被宽松的监管和低利率资产价格泡沫,经济只是看起来强健。在表面之下,诸多问题正在发酵:不平等性日益增加、结构性改革(从基于制造业的经济转向服务业并适应全球比较优势的变化)的需要得不到满足、持续的全球失衡;以及金融系统更习惯于投机而不是创造就业岗位、提高生产率和利用盈余实现社会回报最大化的投资。

决策者对危机的反应并没有纠正这些问题;更糟糕的是,反而加剧了其中一些问题并创造了新的问题——不仅美国是如此。结果是随着GDP暴降影响了政府岁入,许多国家负债水平增加。此外,公共和私人部门的投资不足让一代年轻人在应该打磨技能、提高生产率的时期荒废并日益疏远着。

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