Eine gefährliche Dreiecksbeziehung – die Ukraine, Europa und Russland

BERLIN – Etwas Vergleichbares hat die EU bisher wohl kaum erlebt! Die Regierung der Ukraine unter Präsident Janukowitsch hat die Verhandlungen mit Brüssel über ein Assoziierungsabkommen nur zum Schein geführt worden und endeten mit einer ukrainischen Absage. Der EU Gipfel in Vilnius sah sich völlig düpiert und wirkte wie eine Versammlung begossener Pudel. In Moskau dagegen dürfte man diese Absage still genossen haben.

Wie man heute weiß, bestand der eigentliche Zweck dieser Scheinverhandlungen für Janukowitsch ausschließlich darin, den Preis für eine Vereinbarung mit Russland hochzutreiben. Und das ist ihm offensichtlich gelungen, denn nur wenige Tage später einigte sich der ukrainische mit dem russischen Präsidenten in Moskau auf einen russischen Kredit in Höhe von 15 Mrd. Dollar, auf eine Absenkung der Gaspreise (die Ukraine bezahlte bis dahin einen der höchsten Preise für russisches Exportgas) und verschiedene Handelsabkommen.

Aus Sicht von Janukowitsch macht dieses Abkommen kurzfristig Sinn, denn die Ukraine kommt mit dem russischen Gas durch den Winter, vermeidet mittels des Kredits ihre Zahlungsunfähigkeit und hält sich den russischen Markt offen, von dem sie abhängig ist. Auf mittlere Sicht allerdings droht die Ukraine mit der Absage an Europa und durch das Abkommen mit Russland ihre Unabhängigkeit in Frage zu stellen, und das ist das eigentliche, weil weit über die Ukraine hinausgreifende gesamteuropäische Problem. Denn von der Unabhängigkeit der Ukraine hängt die postsowjetische Ordnung in Europa ab.

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