欧洲在乌克兰问题上严重失策

柏林—欧盟可能从未遇到过这样的经验:乌克兰总统亚努科维奇的政府装作与欧盟谈判加入协定,直到最后一刻突然反悔。欧盟领导人有被骗的感觉,而在莫斯科,则是群情激动。

现在我们知道,亚努科维奇谈判的真正动机是提高俄罗斯拉拢乌克兰的出价。几天后,亚努科维奇和俄罗斯总统普京宣布俄罗斯将向乌克兰提供价值150亿美元的贷款、降低天然气价格,并签订一系列贸易协议。

从亚努科维奇的角度看,这一协议在短期相当有效:天然气协议有助于乌克兰度过严冬,贷款有助于避免债务违约,而乌克兰经济所依靠的俄罗斯市场也将保持大门敞开。但是,从中期看,拒绝欧盟、投入俄罗斯怀抱的乌克兰有可能丧失其独立性,而这一独立性也是后苏联时代欧洲秩序的基础。

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