jeffrey D. Sachs, Climate change Negotiations, global-warming, technological problem AND  CO2 emissions,  China and US not ready to sacrifice millions of jobs Stewart Innes/ZumaPress

I Limiti Dei Negoziati Sul Clima

NEW YORK – Se il pianeta intende risolvere la crisi del cambiamento climatico, è necessaria una nuova strategia. Attualmente, le maggiori potenze considerano il cambiamento climatico come una negoziazione tra coloro che devono ridurre le emissioni di CO2 (principalmente dall’uso di carbone, petrolio e gas). Ogni paese accetta piccoli “contributi” di riduzione delle emissioni, cercando di spingere gli altri a fare di più. Gli Stati Uniti, per esempio, “concederanno” un po’ di riduzione di CO2 se la Cina farà lo stesso.

Per un ventennio, siamo stati intrappolati in questa mentalità minimalista e incrementale, che è sbagliata principalmente per due ragioni. In primo luogo, non funziona: le emissioni di CO2 sono in aumento non in diminuzione. L’industria petrolifera globale sta vivendo un momento d’oro – con le fratturazioni, perforazioni, esplorazioni dell’Artico, la gassificazione del carbone e la costruzione di nuovi impianti per la liquefazione del gas naturale (GNL). Il mondo sta distruggendo le dotazioni dei sistemi climatici ed alimentari ad un ritmo vertiginoso.

In secondo luogo, la “decarbonizzazione” del sistema energetico è un processo tecnologicamente complicato. Il vero problema dell’America non è la concorrenza della Cina; è la complessità dello spostamento di un’economia da 17.500 miliardi di dollari dai combustibili fossili alle alternative a basso tenore di carbonio. Il problema della Cina non sono gli Stati Uniti, ma come affrancare la più grande, o la seconda più grande economia del mondo (a seconda di quali dati vengano utilizzati) dalla sua dipendenza dal carbone, profondamente radicata. Questi sono principalmente problemi ingegneristici, non di negoziazione.

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