jeffrey D. Sachs, Climate change Negotiations, global-warming, technological problem AND  CO2 emissions,  China and US not ready to sacrifice millions of jobs Stewart Innes/ZumaPress

气候谈判的局限

纽约—如果世界想要解决气候变化危机,我们就需要新方法。目前,主要大国将气候变化视为一场关于谁减少二氧化碳排放(主要来自煤炭、石油和天然气的使用)的谈判。所有人都同意为减排做出小“贡献”,而让其他国家承担更多责任。比如,美国将在减少二氧化碳方面做出一些“让步”,条件是中国也这样做。

二十年来,我们一直陷于这一最小值和增量思维陷阱中。这一思维存在两个关键问题。首先,它并没有奏效:CO2 排放在增加而不是在减少。全球石油工业正在开动马力——致裂、钻井、在北冰洋勘探、煤气化、建设新的液化天然气设施。世界正在以极快的速度威胁气候和粮食供给系统。

其次,能源系统的“去碳化”在技术上十分复杂。美国的真正问题不是来自中国的竞争;而是实现规模达到17.5万亿美元的经济从化石燃料转向低碳替代燃料的复杂性。中国的问题不在于美国,而在于如何让这个世界第一大或第二大(取决于使用和中数据)经济体摆脱对煤炭的深度依赖。这些问题主要是工程问题,而不是谈判问题。

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