El largo corto plazo

BERKELEY – Antes de 2008 enseñaba a mis estudiantes que la economía de los Estados Unidos era flexible. Tenía empleadores dispuestos a arriesgarse y contratar trabajadores desempleados que serían productivos; y tenían empleados dispuestos a aprovechar la oportunidad, o intentar algo nuevo a fin de conseguir un empleo. Mientras los empleadores y trabajadores emprendedores se arriesgaran, la oferta crearía su propia demanda.

Sí, yo solía señalar que las sacudidas adversas al gasto en efecto podrían crear desempleo masivo y capacidad no utilizada, pero sus efectos se limitarían a uno, dos o máximo tres años. Y cada año, una vez terminada la desaceleración inicial, la economía estadounidense recuperaría aproximadamente 40% del terreno entre su situación actual y su potencial de pleno empleo.

La duración del corto plazo keynesiano (y monetarista), decía yo que era de 0 a 2 años. Cuando se analizaban eventos en un horizonte de tres a siete años, uno podía asumir sin duda un modelo “clásico”: la economía regresaría al pleno empleo, mientras que los cambios en política y en el entorno económico alterarían la distribución pero no el nivel del gasto, la producción y el empleo. Más allá de siete años era la esfera del crecimiento económico y las instituciones económicas.

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