以色列的伊朗问题核方案

洛杉矶——前任总统乔治·W·布什不久前出版的回忆录披露2007年春他曾拒绝了以色列摧毁叙利亚秘密核反应堆的要求。虽然这则消息似乎仅仅是历史的注脚,却深刻凸显了外交努力失败后以色列能否依赖美国采取军事行动阻止伊朗核计划的新的不确定结果。 叙利亚这则插曲表明以色列不能依赖美国,也就是说以色列可能再次决定单独行动,不过这次是摧毁伊朗核设施。

但如何以色列这么做,就不得不面对一道难题。 与袭击叙利亚核电厂不同,以色列常规部队不具备摧毁伊朗疑似核设施的能力。 伊朗核计划的组成部分其掩护、分散及隐蔽工作非常严密。 由此产生的问题是以色列“所有方案都摆在桌面上”的一再克制意味着甚至核打击的可能性也不能排除。 从以色列的核历史中找不到明确的答案,但未来可能必须迅速采取行动。

以色列从未承认掌握核武器,更不用说公布核武器的范围和规模。 以色列的决策者拒绝就此话题发表评论。 以色列议会克奈赛从未讨论过核计划或就拨款问题进行过审议。 军事监察员压制相关的公众舆论。

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