La gran sorpresa de Bibi

NUEVA YORK – Benyamin Netanyahu ha demostrado que las encuestas de opinión se  equivocaron: no una vez, sino dos. En las semanas y los días inmediatamente anteriores a las elecciones de Israel, se predecía su derrota de forma generalizada. Después, en las horas posteriores a la votación, las encuestas a la salida de los colegios electorales indicaban la paridad entre su partido Likud y la Unión Sionista, de centro izquierda, encabezada por su principal rival, Yitzhak Herzog, con una ligera ventaja para el bloque de derechas. Varias horas después de que se cerraran los colegios electorales, resultó que el Likud era el gran vencedor, al conseguir treinta de los ciento veinte escaños del Knesset, frente a veinticuatro de la Unión Sionista.

A consecuencia de ello, Netanyahu no tendrá dificultad para formar un gobierno de coalición de derechas. Los hombres fuertes en el caso de que hubiera habido paridad –los pequeños partidos y listas electorales del centro del espectro político– han perdido gran parte de su capacidad de negociación.

Han sido unas elecciones decisivas en dos sentidos: el resultado ha reflejado el pronunciado giro a la derecha del electorado israelí y ha reforzado el predominio político de Netanhyahu. En época tan reciente como 2006, Ehud Olmert había ganado unas elecciones en Israel con una plataforma conciliadora, al prometer que prolongaría la retirada unilateral por parte de Ariel Sharon desde Gaza hasta la Ribera Occidental. En las elecciones de 2009, el partido Kadima, encabezado por su sucesora, Tzipi Livni, obtuvo un escaño más que el Likud, pero no pudo formar un gobierno de coalición. Netanyahu sí  y a continuación ganó las elecciones de 2013. Ahora ha vuelto a vencer.

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