Bibis große Überraschung

NEW YORK – Benjamin Netanjahu hat die Umfragen widerlegt – nicht nur einmal, sondern zweimal. In den Wochen und Tagen vor der israelischen Wahl wurde ihm durchweg eine Niederlage prophezeit. Dann, kurz nach Wahlende, herrschte laut Umfragen zwischen seiner Likud-Partei und der Mitte-Links-Partei der Zionistischen Union unter der Führung seines Erzrivalen Yitzhak Herzog beinahe ein Gleichstand, mit einem leichten Vorsprung für den rechten Block. Einige Stunden nach der Schließung der Wahllokale erwies sieh Likud dann als der große Gewinner. Die Partei erhielt 30 der 120 Sitze des Knesset, verglichen mit 24 für die Zionistische Union.

So wie die Dinge stehen, wird Netanjahu also keine Probleme haben, eine rechtsgerichtete Regierungskoalition zu bilden. Die Königsmacher – die kleineren Parteien und Wahllisten in der Mitte des politischen Spektrums – haben damit den größten Teil ihrer Verhandlungsmacht verloren.

Die Wahl war in zweierlei Beziehung bedeutsam: Das Ergebnis spiegelt den scharfen Rechtsruck der israelischen Wählerschaft wider und hat Netanjahus politische Dominanz verstärkt. Noch 2006 hatte Ehud Olmert mit einem friedensbetonten Programm in Israel eine Wahl gewonnen. Er schlug damals vor, Ariel Sharons einseitigen Rückzug aus Gaza auch noch auf das Westjordanland auszudehnen. Bei der Wahl von 2009 erzielte die Kadima-Partei unter seiner Nachfolgerin Tzipi Livni einen Sitz mehr als Likud, konnte aber keine Regierungskoalition bilden. Netanjahu gelang dies und gewann dann auch noch die Wahl von 2013. Und jetzt hat er erneut gewonnen.

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