比比的大惊奇

纽约—内塔尼亚胡(比比)证明了民调专家是错的——不是一次,而是两次。在以色列大选前几周的日子里,人们广泛预测他会败北。接着,在投票后几小时,出口民调显示他的利库德集团和他的主要对手赫尔佐格(Yitzhak Herzog)领导的中左翼的犹太复国主义联盟势均力敌,前者略占上风。投票结束几小时后,利库德集团成为大赢家,赢得120个议会席位的30个,而犹太复国主义联盟赢得24席。

因此,内塔尼亚胡将在没有实际困难的情况下组建中右翼联合政府。在势均力敌情况下左右结果的力量——小政党和政治中间派选民——丧失了大部分讨价还价力。

从两个角度讲,这是一次关键的选举:结果反映出以色列选民急剧向右转并强化了内塔尼亚胡的政治主宰力。在2006年时,奥尔默特(Ehud Olmert)以鸽派主张——承诺扩大沙龙(Ariel Sharon)单方面从加沙撤回约旦河西岸的政策——赢得以色列选举。在2009年的选举中,前进党(Kadima party)在奥尔默特的继任者利夫尼(Tzipi Livni)的领导下比利库德集团多赢得一个席位,但无法组建联合俄政府。内塔尼亚胡做到了,并且继续赢得了2013年选举。如今,他再次在选举中获胜。

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