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La lógica estratégica de Estado Islámico

LONDRES – El denominado Estado Islámico (ISIS) sigue planteando un grave desafío no sólo a Medio Oriente, sino al mundo entero. Los esfuerzos de una coalición liderada por Estados Unidos debilitaron a la milicia, pero destruirla demostró ser difícil, y el grupo sigue alentando atentados en lugares remotos, de Bruselas a Bangladesh.

Para comprender cómo derrotar a ISIS de una vez por todas, primero debemos entender su estrategia. No nos equivoquemos: aun si los atentados internacionales relacionados con ISIS parecen aleatorios, la cruzada global del grupo tiene una lógica estratégica.

ISIS está luchando por su supervivencia. No tiene dinero ni personal para librar nada parecido a una guerra tradicional contra la coalición liderada por Estados Unidos y sus aliados locales (al menos, no por mucho tiempo). Lo que sí tiene es un mensaje que encuentra oídos propicios en ciertos grupos de personas (por lo general, varones jóvenes marginados, desencantados y atormentados) en una amplia variedad de países, en Medio Oriente, Europa y otras partes. Y aprendió muy bien a aprovechar esas fuentes de mano de obra.

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