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La stratégie européenne de l'État islamique

LONDRES – Les attaques terroristes par les filiales et les sympathisants de l'État islamique (EI) l'année dernière ont suscité des craintes en Europe, mais elles n'ont pas encore atteint la fréquence que l'Europe a connu dans les années 1970, selon la Global Terrorism Database, la base de données mondiale du terrorisme. Toutefois, alors que les vagues précédentes de terrorisme en Europe provenaient de conflits internes, la poussée de violence mortelle actuelle est liée à l'instabilité en dehors du continent.

Les dernières attaques émergent du vide politique laissé par les dictateurs déchus au Moyen-Orient et en Afrique du Nord. Ainsi, comme il ne semble y avoir aucune fin en vue pour la violence en Syrie, en Irak et en Libye, ni pour la polarisation extrême de l'Égypte, ni pour la situation fragile de sécurité en Tunisie et en Algérie, il y a peu de raisons de croire que les attaques en Europe vont cesser de sitôt.

Pour aggraver encore la situation, le putsch sanglant  du mois de juillet en Turquie, où 270 personnes ont été tuées et 1 500 autres blessées en l'affaire de quelques heures, fait de ce pays une cible encore plus attirante pour l'EI. L'EI se nourrit des États au régime troublé, d'où il peut tirer des recrues et lancer des attaques, soit en établissant « une Province officielle, » comme en Syrie, en Irak, en Libye et en Égypte, soit en soutenant des cellules secrètes et de petites unités de combat, comme il l'a déjà fait en Tunisie et en Turquie.

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