全球金融改革是否可能?

香港—时至今日,已有充分的证据表明,不管是20世纪90年代的亚洲,还是十年后的美国和欧洲,金融系统都难逃崩溃的命运。增长中断和失业飙升的代价极其沉重。

但是,只要在某些关键点上不能达成国际共识,改革就会被严重削弱(如果不是胎死腹中的话)。资金、金融市场和人口的自由流动——从而规避监管和征税——或许是一种可接受的(甚至是建设性的)防止官方过度干预的办法,但如果大家竞相去监管化,以至于连必须的道德和审慎性标准都抛弃了,就会适得其反。

或许最重要的当务之急是形成连贯一致的办法处置摇摇欲坠的“具系统重要性的”机构。纳税人和政府不得不出手援助债权人,即使援助会鼓励过度冒险的行为也在所不惜,因为他们害怕倒闭产生毁灭性效应会蔓延开来。

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