Nutzt oder schadet der chinesische Merkantilismus den armen Ländern?

CAMBRIDGE, MASS.: Chinas Handelsbilanz dürfte auch in diesem Jahr wieder einen fetten Überschuss ausweisen. Zugleich verstärkt sich die Sorge um die Nachhaltigkeit der Konjunkturerholung in den USA. Beide Entwicklungen legen nahe, dass China erneut unter Druck geraten wird, seine Währung deutlich aufzuwerten. Zuspitzen dürfte sich der Konflikt mit den USA im September während der Kongressanhörungen über den Renminbi, wo viele die Obama-Administration drängen werden, China mit Sanktionen zu drohen, falls es nicht etwas tut.

Die Diskussion über die chinesische Währung konzentriert sich auf die Notwendigkeit, den Handelsüberschuss des Landes zu verringern und die globalen makroökonomischen Ungleichgewichte zu korrigieren. Mit einer weniger konkurrenzstarken Währung, so die Hoffnung vieler Analysten, wird China weniger exportieren und mehr importieren, was einen positiven Beitrag zur Konjunkturerholung in den USA und anderen Volkswirtschaften leisten würde.

Der Renminbi wird bei dieser Diskussion überwiegend als US-chinesisches Problem betrachtet, während die Interessen der armen Länder selbst in den multilateralen Foren weitgehend unbeachtet bleiben. Dabei könnte eine deutliche Wertzunahme des Renminbi erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die Entwicklungsländer haben. Ob sie freilich von einer Neubewertung des Renminbi profitieren oder darunter leiden würden, ist heiß umstritten.

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