伊朗的革命回响

发自美国纽约州石溪 —— 伊朗的动荡局面久拖不决,已经持续到推翻巴列维王朝革命 30 周年纪念之际了,这也令人不得不怀疑:伊斯兰共和国是否已经走到了尽头?如同 1979 年数百万伊朗民众涌向街头一样,人们又一次走上街头,齐声抗议去年 6 月总统大选的选举弊案。

而在大选中遭到对手暗算的两位总统候选人 —— 也都是当年的老革命 —— 则本能地把眼前的局面视为一次历史的重演。米尔·侯赛因·穆萨维把示威者的绿色标志看作是先知之屋( House of the Prophet )的颜色,并敦促其支持者每晚坚持在自家楼顶上高唱圣歌《真主伟大!》,可见反对派的第一条口号正是借用了 1979 年那些革命者的宗教口号。而就在最近,在 2009 年年末举行的大阿亚图拉侯赛因·阿里·蒙塔泽里的葬礼上,抗议者也再次唱响了这首圣歌。

但我们受到 1979 年记忆误导的可能性也很大,毕竟到目前为止依然难以断定另一场革命即将到来。然而也必须指出,当今伊朗社会与其政府之间的分歧要比 30 年前巴列维治下的分歧要大得多。因此变革似乎也是无法避免的。

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