Последний шанс Ирана?

МАДРИД. Самый последний раунд переговоров по иранской ядерной программе между Ираном и так называемой группой «5+1» (пять постоянных членов Совета Безопасности ООН ‑ США, Великобритания, Россия, Франция и Китай плюс Германия) уже начался. Более чем год спустя ни к чему не приведших переговоров, начавшихся в январе 2011 г., этот диалог во многом является последним шансом найти мирное решение почти десятилетнего конфликта (в котором я принимал тесное участие в период с 2006 по 2009 годы, возглавляя сторону Запада в переговорах с Ираном).

Цель переговоров, которые проходят под председательством руководителя внешней политики Европейского Союза Кэтрин Эштон и иранского главного переговорщика Саида Джалили, по-прежнему заключается в том, чтобы убедить Иран прекратить обогащение урана и выполнить свои обязательства по резолюции Совета Безопасности и Договору о нераспространении ядерного оружия. Но несколько факторов повышают стратегическую важность нынешних переговоров.

Во-первых, внутренние экономические и политические условия в Иране заметно изменились с момента последнего раунда переговоров. Международное давление все возрастало благодаря применению новых санкций по отношению к иранскому экспорту нефти и операциям с ЦБ Ирана, начиная с того момента, когда в ноябре прошлого года Международное агентство по атомной энергии подтвердило, что ядерная программа страны направлена на производство ядерного оружия, а не электроэнергии и медицинских изотопов.

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