A Última Oportunidade do Irão?

MADRID – A última ronda de negociações sobre o programa nuclear Iraniano, entre o Irão e o chamado grupo “5+1” (os cinco membros permanentes do Conselho de Segurança das Nações Unidas – Estados Unidos, Reino Unido, Rússia, França, e China – mais a Alemanha) começou agora. A seguir a mais de um ano de impasse, depois das negociações em Janeiro de 2011 não terem levado a lado algum, este diálogo é para muitos a última oportunidade de encontrar uma solução pacífica para um conflito de quase uma década (em que participei de perto entre 2006 e 2009 como o principal negociador do Ocidente com o Irão).

O objectivo das conversações, presididas pela responsável da política externa da União Europeia Catherine Ashton e pelo negociador principal Iraniano Saeed Jalili é ainda persuadir o Irão a interromper o enriquecimento de urânio e a seguir as resoluções do Conselho de Segurança e as suas obrigações ao abrigo do Tratado de Não Proliferação Nuclear. Mas vários factores salientam a importância estratégica das actuais negociações.

Em primeiro lugar, as condições económicas e políticas internas no Irão mudaram acentuadamente desde a última ronda de conversações. A pressão internacional escalou, desde que a Agência Internacional de Energia Atómica confirmou em Novembro último que o programa nuclear do país estava a avançar no sentido da produção de armas nucleares, em vez de electricidade e isótopos médicos, com novas sanções impostas às exportações Iranianas de petróleo e às transacções com o Banco Central do Irão.

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