Irán: La última oportunidad para la diplomacia

La crisis de Irán está avanzando rápidamente en una dirección alarmante. Ya no puede haber ninguna duda razonable de que la ambición de Irán es obtener armas nucleares. Sin embargo, en el centro del problema se encuentra la aspiración del régimen iraní de convertirse en una potencia hegemónica regional islámica y de esa manera posicionarse al mismo nivel que los países más poderosos del mundo. Es precisamente esta ambición la que distingue a Irán de Corea del Norte: mientras que Corea del Norte busca tener capacidad nuclear para afianzar su propio aislamiento, Irán quiere obtener dominio regional y más.

Irán apuesta a que sucedan cambios revolucionarios al interior de la estructura de poder del Medio Oriente que le ayuden a alcanzar su objetivo estratégico. Con este fin, utiliza a Israel y el conflicto palestino-israelí pero también a Líbano, Siria, su influencia en la región del Golfo y, por encima de todo, a Iraq. Esta combinación de aspiraciones hegemónicas, cuestionamiento del status quo regional y un programa nuclear es extremadamente peligrosa.

La adquisición de una bomba nuclear por parte de Irán -o incluso la capacidad para producirla- sería interpretada por Israel como una amenaza fundamental a su existencia, lo que obligaría a Occidente y, a Europa en particular, a adoptar una posición. Europa no solamente tiene obligaciones morales históricas hacia Israel sino también intereses de seguridad que lo unen al estratégicamente vital Mediterráneo oriental. Además, un Irán con capacidad nuclear también sería percibido como una amenaza por parte de sus otros vecinos, lo que probablemente provocaría una carrera armamentista regional y alimentaría una mayor volatilidad regional. En suma, un Irán con capacidad nuclear pondría en duda la seguridad fundamental de Europa. Es una ilusión peligrosa creer que Europa se puede mantener al margen de este conflicto.

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