Instabilität durch Starrheit

Alle wollen wirtschaftliche Stabilität und keiner möchte heute aufgeben, was ihm gestern Stabilität verlieh. Allerdings ist es trügerisch, Stabilität durch Starrheit herstellen zu wollen. Die Stabilität des internationalen Finanzsystems von heute hängt nämlich von der Bereitschaft der Länder mit starren Wechselkursen ab, diese Kurse flexibler zu gestalten. 

In der Zeit nach der internationalen Finanzkrise der Jahre 1997 und 1998 waren viele Schwellenmärkte – aufgrund von Währungsabwertungen, raschen Produktivitätszuwächsen oder beidem – höchst wettbewerbsfähig. Länder mit erheblichen Leistungsbilanzüberschüssen bauten enorme Reserven auf und setzten die Wechselkurse ihrer Währungen fest (oder steuerten sie stark), um die ersten zwei Zielvorgaben zur Sicherung der externen Stabilität zu erreichen.

Die Ironie an der Sache ist, dass während der Krise der Jahre 1997/98 ein spezielles System festgesetzter Wechselkurse versagte, als das Kapital abfloss. Doch in vielfacher Hinsicht klappte die Anhäufung von Reserven besser, als man sich das vorgestellt hatte – die Länder erkannten, dass man beträchtlichen Schocks standhalten konnte und das Wachstum war sowohl national als auch international beeindruckend. Innerhalb von ein paar Jahren kam man in vielen Ländern daher zum Schluss, dass festgesetzte Wechselkurse eine gute Sache wären, solange man dies durch ausreichend mit offiziellen Reserven gefüllte Kriegskassen unterstützte. Im weltweiten Wechselkurssystem entstand eine neue Art von Ordnung. 

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