由僵化带来的不稳定

所有人都希望经济保持稳定,而许多人在今天不愿意放弃昨天曾给他们带来稳定性的东西。但是试图从僵化不变中获得稳定只能是异想天开。今天国际金融系统的稳定需要那些汇率固定不变的国家愿意允许更大的灵活性。

在1997-1998年爆发的国际金融危机之后,许多新兴市场发现它们通过使货币贬值或生产力的快速增长或者两者并用就可以保持很强的竞争力。这些国家获得巨额的国际收支经常项目顺差、建立起庞大的外汇储备并且将它们的汇率固定下来(或者高度控制)以实现前两个目标,似乎保持了很强的外部稳定性。

具有讽刺意味的是1997-1998年的金融危机正是汇率挂钩的特定体系在资金出现外流时爆发的。然而,在许多情况下,持续增长的外汇储备比任何人所能够想象的都要有利,这些国家发现它们能够抵御国内外的巨大冲击并且保持了高速的增长。因此,在几年时间里,许多国家认为有着官方外汇储备这样份量很重的棋子的支持,它们的汇率挂钩机制就会运作得很好。于是在世界汇率体系中出现了一种新的秩序。

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