Economics

拉起通胀之锚

Feb 25, 2021 Robert J. Barro

发自剑桥—在50年以前，美国最大的宏观经济问题是高通胀，上世纪70年代平均通胀率超过6%，到70年代末甚至达到10%。随后美联储主席保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）走马上任，他先是在1979年得到吉米·卡特总统任命，接着又于1983年在罗纳德·里根总统手下继续任职。

1981年，沃尔克借助高利率政策破除了通胀并因此名声大噪。通过在经济衰退的情况下仍然坚持这一政策，他使金融市场、企业和家庭相信美联储今后将不惜一切代价确保低水平且稳定的通胀。

许多年后，这位顶级货币政策制定者的坚定承诺兴许成为了马里奥·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）的榜样——他在2012年担任欧洲央行行长时承诺会“不惜一切代价”维护欧元。毫无疑问，德拉吉在这一使命上的成功解释了他为何能在近期就任意大利总理。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 Comments on this article

Richard Boltuck Feb 28, 2021

So how did the Fed balloon its balance sheet and hence banking reserves over the decade-plus since the 2008 financial crisis without stimulating much greater inflation to date, including by the peak of the recovery in 2019 or early 2020? Why would that pattern have sustained Fed "credibility" and low inflationary expectations?

My supposition is that the introduction of the radically new policy of sterilizing excess reserves on account at the Fed through the payment of sufficient interest (at artificially low short-term economy-wide rates), thereby preventing high-powered money from fueling an expansion in transactional money (M1, M2, etc.) through the multiple-creation process has done the job -- to date. The problem is that this technique just shifts the time profile of costs and consequences. There remains no free lunch. To conclude otherwise is an exercise in the fallacy of inductive reasoning -- the type of reasoning that leads the man who jumped from the skyscraper to be heard saying, "so far, so good" as he passes the 50th floor.

Prof. Barro, thoughts?
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Jim Quinn Feb 28, 2021

As soon as the Democrats are put in charge we are told to worry about inflation, deficits and debt. Where were you when the corrupt, incompetent liar was in charge?
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David Lentz Feb 27, 2021

It’s fine for policy makers. Volkers high interest rates destroyed the USA middle class. 18 percent mortgages. Plus the destruction of unions in the privates sector and offshore of to China. Foreign policy could have been used you tell the Saudis turn on the taps or we seize your country. Basing the interest rate on the price of one commodity was not good policy
18 percent interest rates destroyed the middle class
That created the rage that created Trump

And everyone keeps praising Volcker and Reagan
They destroyed America for most Americans
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Robert Wolff Feb 25, 2021

I am of the same opinion as the author. Throwing money at a failing capitalist economy will not save Capitalism, only make future Socialism inevitable.

The Weimar Republic (post-WWI Germany)experienced the actual phenomenon the author warns of (spectacular inflationary recession which Volcker stopped in the early 1980's through extremely dire measures that resolved the inflationary trends but at the expense of a rapid economic contraction).

Along with the rise of Chinese production and sales and falling US production and sales, its combination with another inflationary recession in America would be deadly and possibly have equivalent consequences to the failure of the German Weimar Republic (another world war incited by US as the only option for America to stabilize its economy).
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