欧元的乐观情景

美国剑桥—欧元和欧元区的前景依然扑朔迷离。但最近在欧洲央行、德国和全球金融市场所发生的事情表明,我们可以对这一共同货币的未来感到乐观。

欧洲央行承诺购买意大利和西班牙主权债券以保持两国利率的低水平,只要两国向欧洲稳定机制(ESM)要求信用额度并信守财政改革承诺。德国宪法法院批准该国加入ESM,总理默克尔也表示支持欧洲央行的债券购买计划,尽管德国央行公开表示强烈反对。国际债券市场也对此表示欢迎,意大利十年期债券利率降至4.8%,西班牙降至5.5%。

意大利债券在欧洲央行行长德拉吉宣布有条件债券购买计划之前便已开始下降。这反映出意大利总理蒙蒂政府所取得的重大进展。新立法将大幅削减退休福利增长,蒙蒂政府业主自住房地产的增税将大量增加收入,而不会像提高个人所得税、工资税和增值税那样引起消极激励。

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