查韦斯的通货膨胀

墨西哥城—刚刚去世的委内瑞拉总统查韦斯的支持者,甚至还有许多他的批评者,都一再强调他身前的两大成就。首先,生活在贫困线之下的人民的比例从2003年的峰值62%下降到了2012年的约28%(尽管在其第一个任期之初这一比例为46%)。其次,他给大部分委内瑞拉人带来了身份认同感、自豪感和尊严,而在此前腐败的精英主义浅肤色寡头政治下,人民是感觉不到这样的感觉的。

但是,这两种看法都是片面的,也只是查韦斯一再获得大选胜利的部分原因——他在包括全民公投在内的14次普选中胜出13次。对第一个看法,《经济学人》(Economist)和诺贝尔奖获得者略萨(Mario Vargas Llosa)正确地指出,查韦斯的成就应该放到长远框架来看待。进入21世纪以来,几乎每个拉美国家都大大降低了贫困率,程度各有不同,但那是由于起讫期的不同、好光景和坏光景交替、官方数据可靠性和其他因素造成的。

如此进步的原因众所周知:除了2001年和2009年,21世纪是商品出口国的繁荣期,巴西、阿根廷、秘鲁、智利,当然还有委内瑞拉都是如此,墨西哥等制造业立国的经济体也是增长迅猛。此外,近15年来,大部分政府都相当负责:财政赤字规模很小或不存在,通货膨胀率低,实施了精确定向的扶贫计划,等等。

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