欧洲的紧缩失败了吗?

布鲁塞尔—尽管许多欧洲政府宣布了减支和增税,但它们的债务/GDP比率仍在恶化。因此,如果紧缩的目的是降低债务水平,那么得到批评理所应当:缩进财政裤腰带失败。但紧缩的目的不仅仅是稳定债务比率。

事实上,紧缩在不少国家达到了宣传的效果。2009年全球危机期间,德国财政赤字暂时上升了大约GDP的2.5个百分点;随后的快速赤字削减并未对增长造成很大的校级音响。因此削减赤字和抑制债务/GDP比率是可行的——只要起点没有严重失衡且金融体系运转正常。显然,欧元区外围国并不符合这些条件。

政府无法获得正常市场融资(如希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙)或面临极高的风险溢价(如2011—2012年期间的意大利和西班牙)的国家别无选择,必须降低支出或从IMF和欧洲稳定机制(ESM)等官方机构获得融资。但外国官方融资永远要求你达到贷款人的条件——而贷款人认为没有理由为此前导致一国陷入麻烦的支出水平融资。

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