Angela Merkel, Acting Chairman of the SPD Olaf Scholz and Chairman of the Bavarian CSU Horst Seehofer

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德国的民粹主义诱惑

Apr 19, 2018 Sławomir Sierakowski

柏林—民粹主义本身不是一种意识形态，因此，很容易被想要挽救选举颓势的主流政党当做救命稻草。永远都会有政客准备提出民粹主义口号和方法来赢得选民，即使这样会令本党陷入分裂。美国共和党、英国保守党和共党，以及新领袖劳伦·弗基耶（Laurent Wauquiez）领导下的法国共和党都是如此。

但这一趋势最可怕的迹象是德国基督教民主联盟（CDU）/基督教社会联盟（CSU）。SDU/SCU在去年的议会选举中表现疲软，与此相对的是，民粹主义德国另类选择党（AfD）取得了全所未有的成功，这给CDU/CSU的政党联盟造成了新的分立。

除了在东德前共产主义各州，AfD表现最抢眼的地区正是CSU的基本盘巴伐利亚，该州将在10月举行地方选举。因此，坚守右翼、抵御AfD的攻击已成为CSU最大的顾虑。

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j. von Hettlingen Apr 22, 2018

Sławomir Sierakowski says Horst Seehofer is “bad news for Germany”. The longtime leader of Angela Merkel’s sister party, the CSU, and home minister of the new grand coalition government, is now the “spoiler in her own camp.” In an effort to recapture votes lost to the far-right populist party, the AfD last September, Seehofer is seeking “to burnish his own populist credentials” ahead of local elections in Bavaria this October.
The author calls Seehofer Viktor Orban’s “political godfather.” As CSU’s former minister president of Bavaria, Seehofer, hosted the Hungarian prime minister at a party conference in January. His colleague Manfred Weber, the leader of European People’s Party (EPP) in the European parliament, praised aspects of Orban’s migration policy on a recent visit to Budapest. The CSU is said to play a pivotal role in whitewashing Orban’s autocratic rule.
The EPP, Europe’s powerful centre-right alliance that includes the parties of Angela Merkel and Jean-Claude Juncker, has been accused of providing political cover for Orban, despite Hungary’s democratic backsliding, hostile stance on migration, misinformation about Brussels and alleged misuse of EU funds. Earlier this month the European right – led by Juncker and members of the CSU – congratulated Orban on his re-election.
The author fears that Merkel’s “trademark tactic of neutralizing potential critics by including them in her cabinet would no longer work,” because Seehofer “immediately launched a cold war within the governing coalition” to undermine her authority and contradict her, like “Islam does not belong to Germany.” While Germany’s “political class” pushed back, the AfD faces competition from the CSU under its new populist leader, Markus Söder.
Apart from speaking “warmly” of Poland’s populist Law and Justice (PiS) government – another illiberal democracy – “while criticizing the European Union for its supposed affronts to Polish dignity,” Seehofer has also forged strong ties with right-wing populist parties in Austria, Italy, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands. In March 2017, he travelled to Moscow, ingratiating himself with Putin, while Merkel was “preparing for her first meeting” with Trump. He has “consistently opposed all sanctions on Russia on any grounds” ever since.
The author says, while Seehofer is at loggerheads with Merkel, the other coalition party, the SPD seems stay above the fray. This enables the AfD to be “the natural beneficiary of any government blunders, given that it is now the largest opposition party in the Bundestag.” Even if Seehofer fails to sell his brand of populism, he may still succeed in driving the government more “to the right.”
Should Germany decide to abandon the EU’s fundamental values, it would take pressure off Poland, Hungary, and “other Eastern European countries that are flouting the rule of law and undermining European solidarity with respect to migrants and refugees.” If Merkel does not receive backing from her government to support Emmanuel Macron’s “substantive reform of the eurozone,” it would squander the golden opportunity to renew the European project.
The author points out Germany’s lack of “dynamism, openness, and courage” that other EU countries have. Despite its status as Europe’s “foremost economic power, its military is badly equipped, service sector “over-regulated” and infrastructure crumbling. It is “lagging a decade behind Eastern Europe on some key development metrics.” He also says the use of credit card is more widespread across Eastern European countries, “whereas in Germany, that is often impossible even in the best restaurants.”
This may give the impression that Germany is still a developing country. But it has little to do with its slow broadband speed and lousy internet infrastructure. There are many reasons for the Germans’ preference for cash. History and culture play a role in this pattern of behaviour. Germans believe cash payment makes it easier to keep track of their money and spending. Levels of consumer debt in Germany are remarkably low. Germans’ aversion to debts is part of the reason why the country has some of the lowest homeownership rates in the developed world. Just 33% of Germans said they had a credit card in 2011.
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Bernhard Kopp Apr 21, 2018

Another nickname for Horst Seehofer is 'bleeding heart socialist', meaning, a catholic social democrat of sort. The Bavarian CSU has a majority to defend and the AfD-showing at the last federal elections was 13% in Bavaria. This is more than a wake-up call, it is a cause for panic. In this context we shall here more law-and-order talk and policies. We shall here more that appeals to people who are leaning towards the right-wing populists. This does, to some extend, include the Hungarian Orban, without endorsing every single policy that he has, and continues to implement in Hungary. In Hungary, the political right has some 69% of the popular vote. Orban does represent the sentiment of the Hungarian electorate more than any other European leader in his country, even if several of his policies go against the grain of any 'reasonable liberal', and are also taken quite seriously within the Bavarian CSU and the European conservative parties. There is some sort of war of more old-fashioned conservative liberals against 'unreasonable liberals', the hyper-liberals, the dogmatic identity liberals, the gender scientists, the liberal fly-over elites, or whatever label one wants to put on the vast majority of those who, over the past 50 years, have broken the chain between liberty and responsibility.
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Peter Schaeffer Apr 19, 2018

The cliche definition of "populist" is "democracy that elites don't like". Wow, is that ever true.
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Peter Schaeffer Apr 19, 2018

Merkel violated all of Europe's rules by inviting millions of unwanted economic migrants into Germany. Of course, the Germans don't won't them and would like to dump them on the rest of Europe. The rest of Europe is rightfully resisting. The real solution is to remove the problem at its source. Oust Merkel.
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Paul Martin Apr 19, 2018

Very good news!
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德国的民粹主义诱惑

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