Collection of globes

La nueva geoeconomía

COLOMBO, SRI LANKA – El año pasado fue inolvidable para la economía mundial.  El desempeño de la economía, de manera general, no sólo fue decepcionante, sino que además ocurrieron cambios profundos –  tanto para bien como para mal – en el sistema económico mundial.

Lo más notable fue el acuerdo sobre el clima de Paris, que fue alcanzado el pasado mes. Por sí solo, el acuerdo está lejos de ser suficiente para limitar el aumento del calentamiento global a la meta de 2ºC por encima del nivel preindustrial. Sin embargo, este acuerdo puso a todos en sobre aviso: El mundo se está desplazando, inexorablemente, hacia una economía verde. Un día no muy lejano, los combustibles fósiles serán, en gran parte, una cosa del pasado. Así que cualquier persona que en la actualidad invierte en la industria del carbón, lo hace a su propio riesgo. Debido a que un mayor número de inversiones verdes pasan a primer plano, esperemos que aquellos que las financien vayan a contrarrestar el poderoso cabildeo de la industria del carbón, que está dispuesta a poner al mundo en riesgo para lograr el avance de sus propios y miopes intereses.

En los hechos, el alejamiento de una economía de alto contenido de carbono, donde con frecuencia son los intereses ligados al carbón, gas y petróleo los que dominan, es sólo uno de varios cambios importantes en el orden geoeconómico mundial. Muchos otros cambios son inevitables, debido al franco crecimiento de la participación porcentual de China en la producción y demanda mundial. Se puso en marcha el año pasado el Nuevo Banco de Desarrollo, establecido por los países BRICS (Brasil, Rusia, India, China y Sudáfrica), convirtiéndose en la primera institución financiera internacional de importancia que es liderada por los países emergentes. Y, a pesar de la resistencia del presidente estadounidense Barack Obama, y con el liderazgo de China, también se creó el Banco Asiático de Inversión en Infraestructura,  mismo que iniciará operaciones este mes.

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