Collection of globes

新型的地缘经济

发自科伦坡——去年对于全球经济来说堪称难忘的一年。这不仅来自于令人失望的整体表现,更由于在全球经济体系中发生的诸多深刻变化——无论是好是坏。

最值得注意的是上月达成的巴黎气候协议。就其本身而言,该协议远远不足以限制全球变暖以达到相对工业化前水平增加2ºC以内的目标。但它确实知会了大家:世界正无情地向绿色经济迈进。在不太遥远的某一天,化石燃料将成为过时的玩意。因此,任何敢在当今投资煤矿的人都要掂量一下自己的风险。随着越来越多的绿色投资纷纷涌现,我们希望这些资助这类项目的人们能抵消强大的煤炭行业游说势力,打败那种为了实现其自身短期利益而置全球风险于不顾的人。

事实上,摆脱由煤炭,天然气和石油利益占主导地位的高碳经济的过程仅仅是全球地缘经济秩序的几项重大变化之一。此外随着中国占全球产出和需求的份额不断扩大,许多变化是不可避免的。由金砖五国(巴西,俄罗斯,印度,中国及南非)成立的新开发银行将在年内正式启动,成为由新兴国家领导的第一个大型国际金融机构。同时尽管美国总统奥巴马不断阻挠,由中国带头发起的亚洲基础设施投资银行依旧顺利成立,并在这个月开始运作。

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