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Politics

中国正在香港玩火

Jun 13, 2019 Minxin Pei

华盛顿—世界都被香港的示威所吸引。示威由香港政府提出的允许向中国大陆引渡犯罪嫌疑人的法案所引起。大约一百万人——占这个前英国殖民地人口的七分之一左右——在6月9日走行街头，反对法律草案，6月12日再度爆发大型示威，并出现示威者与警方之间的暴力冲突。

但是，尽管出现了群众示威，但中国政府决定听之任之。受北京控制的香港领导人没有撤销立法提案，而是将其列入快车道，定于本月月底在立法会排期投票。这项法律的实施不仅对香港来说是一场灾难，对中国也是如此。

引渡法提案将破坏中国遵守香港“一国两制”模式的承诺。该立法将让北京当局拥有便利的合法工具剥夺被认为是国家“敌人”的个体，破坏香港公民——以及定居在香港的外国人——的自由。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 11 Comments on this article

Shanshan Luo Jun 17, 2019

The calculation of one million of protesters is based on almost four times of leverage. The organizer counted all the persons passed through the main street Hennessy Road of Wan Chai in Hong Kong island during the protest period whether they are protesters , visitors or just citizens passing by. The more accurate statistics are around 1 quarter of a million (source: Hong Kong police) or around 1 fifth of a million (from an independent survey by Professor Francis Lui, a former economist of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology).
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Abika Trader Jun 16, 2019

What next?
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lt lee Jun 14, 2019

Hong Kongers have a lot of frustration and anger.
They are out competed by mainlanders in both high end and low end jobs. In addition, Hong Kong government is still rely on "high land price" policy. High land price leads to very expensive and out of the reach of average Hong Kongers. But saying the extradition law would damage Hong Kong's rule of law is groundless.
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lt lee Jun 14, 2019

"現時社會爭議的逃犯引渡條例，本意是好的，一方面能完善香港的法制，另一方面能協助各地執法者伸張公義，令香港不會變成犯罪者隱匿的天堂。雖然政府為釋除疑慮，不單將門檻提高，請法院把關，還將涉及宗教、政治及言論等範疇從移犯條例中剔除；但反對派政客和媒體刻意歪曲事實，過度解讀，通過各種宣傳手段，誤導和脅嚇市民。而且還結合各種外國力量，將香港內部修例一事，變成國際政治議題，矛頭直指中、港政府。"
https://n.kinliu.hk/kinliunviews/%E5%90%B3%E5%AE%97%E6%96%87%E7%89%A7%E5%B8%AB%E4%BB%A3%E7%A6%B1%E7%9A%84%E7%B1%B2%E6%B1%82%E3%80%80%E6%96%87%EF%BC%9A%E5%90%B3%E5%AE%97%E6%96%87%E7%89%A7%E5%B8%AB/
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hong Koh Jun 14, 2019

It is very cute that you say 1/7 th of the population came out on the streets. Currently a democracy is defined as the "majority" which is 6/7s. So if the majority agree then it is democratic to allow the passage of this law. However in the USA the Senate and the Electoral College is gerrymandered and there is no real democracy in the USA. A lot of the anger in Hong Kong is because of the success of China and that Shanghai amongst many other cities in China has superseded HK in both English ability and financial strength. If you can't speak Mandarin or English your prospects become limited and jealousy of the Chinese success is apparent everywhere. These demonstrators need to get off their butts and learn the lingo. I was shocked at the low standard of English and Mandarin amongst people in Hong Kong.
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Michael Public Jun 14, 2019

The World is always watching. Certain countries have permantly tarnished their reputation. North Korea. Russia. Iran. In the long term the consequences for such pariahs are severe.
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Linsen Li Jun 14, 2019

This week's Hong Kong demonstrations escalated from a largely peaceful gathering to bona fide riots, with masked protesters hurling bricks at police and storming government buildings. This turmoil exposes the Hong Kong protesters' complete disregard for rule of law and the democratic process. There is zero chance Beijing will back down, nor is there any valid reason to.

It's almost silly to discuss the extradition law as a serious cause for the protests. No ones truly cares about extradition laws, certainly not enough to question the extradition of Assange or the arrest/kidnap of Meng Wanzhou. The underlying reasons for the Hong Kong protesters' discontent is the economic squeeze and general hopelessness of the lower and lower-middle class. This is happening all over the world, but Hong Kong's lack of land and natural resources exacerbates the problem many folds. In the past, Hong Kongers could at least point at the mainlanders and be sustained by a sense of superiority, but the rise of Chinese economy and the influx of monied mainland tourists have taken that away.

The author refers to the US-Hong Kong Policy Act as a leverage against Beijing, but it is at best a double-edged sword, at worst completely ineffectual. Suspending Hong Kong's privileges will certainly hurt Hong Kong far more than it would hurt the mainland, and one can make the argument that Beijing may even welcome such a development. If Hong Kong is the petulant child that needs to be disciplined, why not have the U.S. dispense the punishment for you?
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j. von Hettlingen Jun 14, 2019

Minxin Pei explains the leverage the US has over China in the ongoing protests in Hong Kong against the extradition law. The US Congress passed the US-Hong Kong Policy Act in 1992 in recognition of the former British colony’s special status after it returned to Chinese rule in 1997. It aimed to allow the US and Hong Kong to maintain their bilateral cooperation, and deep economic and cultural interests there.
Under the provisions of the 1992 act, Hong Kong is being treated as a “separate entity from mainland China” with its own political, legal and economic system. It must maintain a sufficient degree of autonomy under the “one county, two systems” framework to justify continued special treatment by the US for “economic and trading privileges, such as continued access to sensitive technologies and the free exchange of the US dollar with the Hong Kong dollar.”
The author warns the leadership in Beijing against pushing through the controversisal extradition bill, because it will “irrevocably tarnish the city's rule of law and its attractiveness as an international commercial hub.” This would be the case should hardliners in the US insist that Congress repeal its recognition of that status as a way of punishing the pro-Beijing government in Hong Kong, whose value as a financial centre will be “fatally impaired.”
The standoff over China’s control in Hong Kong may play into Trump’s trade war with Beijing. The act explicitly empowers the US president to “issue an executive order suspending some or all of Hong Kong’s privileges if he asserts that “Hong Kong is not sufficiently autonomous to justify treatment under a particular law of the United States.” Trump said he would hold up a trade deal with China, after threatening to raise tariffs on Chinese goods if President Xi Jinping did not meet with him in Osaka on the sidelines of the G 20 summit in Japan later this month.
The author points out how revoking Hong Kong’s special status would hurt China, punishing its state-owned companies, tycoons and officials who use Hong Kong as an offshore financial centre, and a door to the global system of finances. An escalating trade war would create “regulatory and legislative hurdles,” making it “harder for Chinese companies to raise capital in the US.” Without access to capital, the valuations of Chinese state-owned enterprises listed on Hong Kong’s stock exchange “will fall.”
The author points out that “even if the US does not take this punitive step, China will reap what it has sowed, given the high price it has to pay. However the move would also undermine the political and economic interests of foreign governments and businesses in Hong Kong, as well as punish local citizens who would suffer from the inevitable financial fallout.
Ever since the “Umbrella Movement” in 2014, the pro-democracy protests attracted global attention. No doubt, China’s leaders are “aware that the outside world is watching current developments with great alarm.” It remains to be seen whether Xi puts jingoism before economic interests, accepting “disastrous consequences” in return for not budging an inch.
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Godfree Roberts Jun 13, 2019

'The likely passage of Hong Kong's controversial extradition law will irrevocably tarnish the city's rule of law '

Whereas the passage of Britain's extradition law will irrevocably burnish its reputation for extraditing journalists to the only country on earth that tortures as state policy.
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Paul Ross Jun 13, 2019

As much as I'd love to agree that the US will hold China accountable, that won't be until the current administration is removed.
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中国正在香港玩火

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