Un’economia globale zoppicante

NEWPORT BEACH – I colleghi di Pimco provenienti da tutto il mondo si sono dati recentemente appuntamento nella sede californiana dell’azienda per il nostro Secular Forum annuale, dove per qualche giorno abbiamo lasciato da parte le analisi di routine per discutere le prospettive a 3/5 anni dell’economia globale. Abbiamo parlato della situazione globale, abbiamo ascoltato le opinioni di relatori esterni e ci siamo concentrati su ciò che presumibilmente accadrà, e non su ciò che dovrebbe accadere.

Dai due precedenti Secular Forum era emerso che, a seguito della crisi finanziaria globale, l’economia mondiale non sarebbe riuscita a rientrare nella sua tradizionale ciclicità, e che avrebbe dovuto far fronte a un riallineamento prolungato a livello nazionale e globale. L’economia mondiale sarebbe guarita, ma in modo lento e incostante, visto e considerato che le economie avanzate se la cavavano alla meno peggio mentre il dinamico mondo emergente colmava gradualmente i divari di reddito e ricchezza.

Da allora gli eventi sono stati coerenti con tale descrizione. La ripresa del G7 è stata eccezionalmente lenta, nonostante le ingenti e costanti misure di stimolo (soprattutto negli Usa). La disoccupazione è salita alla stelle e ora supera addirittura quella delle economie emergenti. Nel frattempo, gli indicatori di deficit e debito sono peggiorati, sia in termini assoluti sia rispetto alle economie emergenti, e il premio medio di rischio sul debito delle economie avanzate supera ora quello per le economie emergenti.

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