Renminbi. Chinese currency.

Il debito occulto dei mercati emergenti

LIMA – Mentre i banchieri centrali e i ministri delle finanze di tutto il mondo si riuniscono per i vertici annuali del Fondo monetario internazionale qui in Perù, il mondo emergente comincia a mostrare i primi sintomi di crescente vulnerabilità economica. Sono ormai passati i tempi in cui le riunioni del Fmi venivano monopolizzate dai problemi delle economie avanzate che lottavano per risollevarsi dalla crisi finanziaria del 2008. Ora la discussione si è spostata verso i Paesi emergenti, che rischiano delle proprie crisi finanziarie.

Anche se non ci sono mai due crisi finanziarie identiche, in tutte tendono comunque a manifestarsi alcuni segnali spia: un significativo rallentamento della crescita economica e delle esportazioni, la dissoluzione delle bolle speculative, crescenti deficit fiscali e di parte corrente, una maggiore leva finanziaria e una riduzione o una netta inversione dei flussi di capitale in entrata. In un modo o nell’altro, le economie emergenti ora mostrano questi segnali.

Il punto di svolta è stato il 2013, quando l’aspettativa dei crescenti tassi di interesse negli Stati Uniti e la flessione dei prezzi globali delle commodity hanno messo fine alle ingenti quantità di capitale che per anni sono state supportate dalla crescita delle economie emergenti. Il recente rallentamento della Cina, che ha alimentato la turbolenza nei mercati di capitale e indebolito ulteriormente i prezzi dei beni di prima necessità, ha acuito la fase di contrazione in tutto il mondo emergente.

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