Renminbi. Chinese currency.

Beban Utang Tersembunyi pada Negara-negara Emerging Market

LIMA – Ketika gubernur bank sentral dan menteri keuangan dari seluruh dunia berkumpul untuk menghadiri pertemuan tahunan Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) di Peru, negara-negara ekonomi rendah (emerging world) dipenuhi dengan gejala-gejala meningkatnya kerentanan ekonomi. Hilang sudah hari-hari ketika pertemuan-pertemuan IMF dimonopoli oleh permasalahan negara-negara maju berjuang untuk pulih dari krisis keuangan tahun 2008. Sekarang, diskusi telah bergeser kembali ke arah negara-negara berkembang, yang menghadapi risiko krisis keuangan mereka sendiri.

Meskipun tidak ada dua krisis keuangan yang identik, semua krisis cenderung memiliki beberapa pertanda yang sama: pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ekspor yang berkurang secara signifikan, meredamnya booming harga aset, membengkaknya defisit neraca berjalan dan fiskal, kenaikan pembiayaan dengan utang (leverage), dan penurunan atau pembalikan aliran modal. Meskipun tingkatannya berbeda, negara-negara ekonomi rendah memperlihatkan semua pertanda tersebut.

Titik balik terjadi pada tahun 2013, ketika ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga di Amerika Serikat dan penurunan harga-harga komoditas global mengakhiri bonanza aliran modal tahunan yang selama ini menyokong pertumbuhan di negara-negara ekonomi rendah. Kemunduran yang dialami Tiongkok akhir-akhir ini, yang memicu turbulensi di pasar modal global dan semakin melemahkan harga-harga komoditas, telah memperburuk kemunduran (downturn) di negara-negara tersebut.

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