Le spectre du Hamas à Annapolis

Le retour des Etats-Unis sur l’avant de la scène diplomatique israélo-palestinienne est une évolution bienvenue, et dans tous les cas une évolution à laquelle la diplomatie de l’UE a concouru. Les efforts entrepris par la secrétaire d’État Condoleezza Rice pour faire avancer le processus de paix au cours de ses dernières années de mandat semblent sincères. S’ils se concrétisent, Rice et l’administration Bush ne resteront pas uniquement dans les livres d’histoire pour la tragédie sans fin de l’Irak, mais également pour leur contribution à l’instauration de la paix au Proche-Orient.

Mais la conférence sur le Proche-Orient prévue à Annapolis, dans le Maryland, pourra-t-elle réussir ? Elle le pourra si elle débouche sur la mise en place d’un gouvernement palestinien d’union nationale et sur un accord pour une trêve prolongée, appuyé par une forte présence militaire internationale. Malheureusement, cette issue est peu probable. La principale cause de ce pessimisme tient à l’incapacité à prendre suffisamment en compte les facteurs internes palestiniens.

La nécessité de faire participer l’ensemble des forces palestiniennes à toutes négociations de paix futures est l’un des points clés du consensus qui s’est récemment dégagé lors d’une conférence euro-américaine organisée par l’Institut d’études de sécurité de l’Union européenne (IES). Le Hamas doit être inclus dans toute solution durable à la question palestinienne, non seulement parce qu’il a remporté des élections démocratiques, mais aussi parce qu’il contrôle la bande de Gaza et qu’il exerce une influence certaine en Cisjordanie. De plus, même si le Hamas a montré par la trêve de longue durée observée avec Israël qu’il serait prêt, sous réserve de persuasions adéquates, à renoncer à la violence, il est aussi possible qu’il rende la situation intenable s’il continue à être exclu.

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