Die Eurozone muss erwachsen werden

MAILAND – In den Industrieländern sind seit der Krise 2007-2009 die öffentlichen Schulden schnell und stark angestiegen: Zum ersten Mal stieg in den OECD-Staaten das durchschnittliche Verhältnis von Schulden zum BIP über 100%. Die Haushaltskonsolidierung wird für die nächsten zwei Generationen auf die Wachstumsaussichten drücken, und der Wohlfahrtsstaat, wie wir ihn in Europa seit dem zweiten Weltkrieg kennen, muss umgewandelt werden, insbesondere angesichts einer stark alternden Bevölkerung.

Aber die Schuldenkrise der Eurozone hat charakteristische Eigenschaften. Am wichtigsten ist, dass die Eurozone seit zwei Jahren in einer schweren Vertrauenskrise steckt, obwohl dort die Konsolidierungsbemühungen früher begannen und das durchschnittliche Verhältnis von Schulden zum BIP nicht höher ist als in anderen entwickelten Ländern. Dies deutet auf eine systemische Dimension der Krise hin, die nicht auf das verschwenderische Verhalten von Haushaltssündern reduziert werden kann.

Tatsächlich wurden durch die griechische Krise drei entscheidende Fehler der Währungsunion an sich deutlich. Zunächst mangelt es dem System an effektiven Übereinkünften, um die Haushaltspolitik und andere wirtschaftspolitische Bereiche in Einklang zu bringen. So lang die Durchsetzung von Haushaltsdisziplin einer staatenübergreifenden Einrichtung anvertraut wird, dürfte das Problem wiederkehren und die Glaubwürdigkeit der gemeinsamen Haushaltsregeln einschränken.

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