Greenspan uspává sám sebe

V předvečer poslední schůzky skupiny G7 v Londýně udělal předseda Federálního rezervního úřadu Alan Greenspan překvapivý obrat o 180 stupňů, když zlehčil americký obchodní deficit. „Tržní tlaky … podle všeho směřují ke stabilizaci a z dlouhodobého hlediska snad ke snížení schodku obchodní bilance USA a s ním spojených požadavků na financování,“ prohlásil. Pouhé dva měsíce před tím však předseda Greenspan ve Frankfurtu varoval, že deficit USA nemůže trvat věčně, aniž by dolar nedevalvoval. Co to má znamenat?

Je pravda, že obchodní údaje USA se poněkud zlepšily. Očekávaný prosincový obchodní deficit činí 57 miliard USD – což je oproti rekordnímu listopadovému schodku ve výši 60,3 miliard USD pokrok. Navíc kvůli nedávno zjištěné statistické chybě kanadských úřadů bude potřeba listopadové číslo korigovat směrem dolů.

Avšak vysvětlením toho, proč předseda Fedu změnil názor na slabou externí pozici Ameriky, není ekonomika, ale politika. Greenspanovo listopadové prohlášení ve Frankfurtu znepokojilo vysoké úředníky Evropské centrální banky (ECB), kteří jej považovali za „provokaci“ – provokaci, která okamžitě vyvolala nechtěný propad dolaru.

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