希腊危机带给世界经济的教训

坎布里奇——希腊政府最终从欧盟伙伴和国际货币基金组织得到的1400亿美元的一揽子援助款让他们赢得了完成恢复金融秩序这项艰巨任务所必不可少的喘息空间。 这项援助计划或许能、或许不能防止西班牙和葡萄牙同样变得一蹶不振,甚至可能都无法防止希腊债务违约的最终发生。 无论结果怎样,希腊经济的崩溃显然都已经令欧盟鼻青脸肿。

从本质上看,这次危机不过又一次生动诠释了我所提出的“世界经济在政治问题上面临三难选择”: 经济全球化、政治民主化和民族国家间存在不可调和的冲突。 我们最多能同时实行两种制度。 只有在限制全球化的情况下,民主才能与国家主权实现和平共处。 如果在推动全球化的同时保留民族国家,我们就必需舍弃民主制度。 如果我们希望实行民主和全球化,那么就必需将民族国家抛到一边,努力提高国际治理程度。

世界经济的过往历史表明确实存在这样的三难选择。 持续到1914年结束的首次全球化浪潮在经济和货币政策与国内政治压力分离的情况下都取得了成功。 当时这些政策完全服从于金本位制和资本自由流动的需要。 可政治投票权一旦扩大,工人阶级立刻组织起来,大众政治也成为常态,国内经济目标开始和外部规则和限制展开竞争,并逐渐将后者压倒。

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