Alex Tsipras concern George Panagakis/ZumaPress

Griechischer Selbstmord?

LONDON – Die gute Nachricht ist, dass ein griechischer Zahlungsausfall - der wahrscheinlicher geworden ist, nachdem der griechische Premierminister Alexis Tsipras das Rettungsangebot der Gläubiger Griechenlands in provozierender Weise als „absurd“ ablehnte - nun keine ernsthafte Bedrohung für den Rest Europas mehr darstellt. Die schlechte Nachricht ist, dass Tsipras dies offenbar nicht versteht.

Nach Tsipras’ Streitlust zu urteilen, ist er fest davon überzeugt, dass Europa Griechenland ebenso dringend braucht wie Griechenland Europa. Darin steckt die wahre „Absurdität“ der laufenden Verhandlungen und Tsipras’ Fehleinschätzung seiner Verhandlungsstärke droht nun zu einer Katastrophe für sein Land oder zu einer Demütigung für Syriza oder beidem zu führen. 

Am wahrscheinlichsten ist, dass Tsipras seine Äußerungen zurücknimmt und die von der „Troika“ (der Europäischen Kommission, der Europäischen Zentralbank und dem Internationalen Währungsfonds) gestellten Bedingungen vor Ende Juni akzeptiert. Tut er das nicht, wird die EZB ihre Unterstützung des griechischen Bankensystems beenden und der Regierung wird das Geld ausgehen, das sie braucht, um die Auslandsschulden zu bedienen und – noch dramatischer – um den griechischen Bürgern ihre Renten und Löhne zu überweisen. Von allen externen Finanzierungsquellen abgeschnitten wird aus Griechenland ein ökonomischer Paria – das Argentinien Europas – und Syriza wird aufgrund des öffentlichen Drucks vermutlich von der Macht entfernt.

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