Alex Tsipras concern George Panagakis/ZumaPress

Een Griekse zelfmoord?

LONDEN – Het goede nieuws is dat een bankroet van Griekenland, dat waarschijnlijker is geworden na de provocatieve afwijzing door premier Alexis Tsipras van wat hij omschreef als het 'absurde' reddingspakket dat de crediteuren Griekenland hebben aangeboden, niet langer een serieuze bedreiging vormt voor de rest van Europa. Het slechte nieuws is dat Tsipras dit niet lijkt te begrijpen.

Te oordelen naar de oorlogszuchtige taal van Tsipras is hij er volledig van overtuigd dat Europa Griekenland net zo hard nodig heeft als Griekenland Europa. Dit is de echte 'absurditeit' waardoor de huidige onderhandelingen worden gekenmerkt; de overschatting door Tsipras van zijn onderhandelingsruimte dreigt nu uit te lopen op een ramp voor zijn land, een vernedering van zijn Syriza-partij, of beide.

De meest waarschijnlijke uitkomst is dat Tsipras zijn woorden zal inslikken en zich vóór eind juni zal onderwerpen aan de voorwaarden van de 'trojka' (de Europese Commissie, de Europese Centrale Bank en het Internationale Monetaire Fonds). Als dat niet gebeurt, zal de ECB ophouden het Griekse bankenstelsel te ondersteunen, en zal de Griekse regering geen geld meer hebben om de buitenlandse schulden af te lossen, en – nog dramatischer – de pensioenen en lonen van de Griekse burgers te betalen. Afgesneden van alle externe financieringsmogelijkheden zal Griekenland een economische paria worden – het Argentinië van Europa – en zal de publieke druk er vermoedelijk toe leiden dat Syriza de macht verliest.

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