David Kingham/Flickr

Europa busca cobijo ante la tormenta

LAGUNA BEACH – A medida que confluyen tres tempestades diferentes (la crisis griega, la incursión rusa en Ucrania y el ascenso de los partidos populistas), el futuro económico de Europa se va cubriendo de nubes negras. Aunque cada una es una amenaza importante, gracias a la reciente recuperación del ciclo económico es posible abordarlas por separado y sin correr el riesgo de sufrir más que algunas perturbaciones temporales. Sin embargo, si se convierten en una especie de “tormenta perfecta” será muy difícil volver a los buenos tiempos.

En estos momentos, las tres se encuentran en etapas de formación diferentes. Tras haberse ido acumulando por años, la crisis griega está a punto de estallar. Más allá del potencial de ser el primer país en salir de la eurozona, Grecia se arriesga a convertirse en un estado fallido, lo que significaría una amenaza de múltiples dimensiones para el resto de Europa. No sería tarea fácil paliar el impacto geopolítico y las consecuencias humanitarias (relacionadas con la migración transfronteriza) que esto acarrearía.

La segunda tormenta que avanza desde el este es el costoso conflicto militar en la región ucraniana del Donbás. El acuerdo de alto al fuego Minsk II sólo ha contenido en parte la crisis del este ucraniano, que refleja la más profunda grieta en la relación de Occidente con Rusia desde el colapso de la Unión Soviética.

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